Election Special #5 examines the latest political and security developments and what it means for Somalia’s elections in 2016. Throughout the election series, we have analysed a myriad of political and security challenges that may undermine Somalia’s ability to transition through elections in 2016, with a view that we would be able to point towards steady but substantive progress as the date neared. However, after a series of fast moving political events towards the end of 2015 and at start of this year, the momentum towards Aug elections appears to have slowed to a low ebb. With the election model awaiting approval by parliament in Apr, the political scene has shifted to interim federal administrations. The period has also witnessed an unprecedented pivot by al-Shabaab into Puntland, which has potential ramifications in terms of security for Somalia and politically for the role of AMISOM in the country. With a few months left before constitutional mandates of parliament and the presidency expire, and the holy month of Ramadan expected to begin in the first week of June, the prospect of elections being held on time is looking increasingly precarious.

The Special Report can be viewed by clicking the link: SOMALIA ELECTION 2016 - The Road to Villa Somalia - No. 5

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This fourth election special report for clients receiving our Somalia Situational Analysis reporting, assesses al-Shabaab, current Counterinsurgency (COIN) strategies, and other security factors or threats which may influence the political path towards elections.

With less than six months before scheduled elections, the flurry of high level political events focused on the roadmap for elections in Aug 2016 appears to have eased momentarily, with attention turning towards the security environment required to enable political progress to be made. AMISOM Troop Contributing Countries Summit held Feb 28 exposed tensions between allied forces, international actors and Somali national security organs regarding the way forward. Political events have arguably been eclipsed by a series of high profile security incidents that have heightened a sense of urgency around addressing challenges facing Somalia national forces and AMISOM, and relations between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and regional administrations. The prevailing security paradigm posed by al-Shabaab, political power brokers and clan and regional interest groups each have the potential to fundamentally challenge progress towards elections in Aug 2016.

The Special Report can be viewed by clicking the link: SOMALIA ELECTION 2016 - The Road to Villa Somalia - No. 4

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This is the third report in our Election Special series and covers the 2016 Somalia electoral process, current situation and what challenges may lay ahead.

With less than six months before elections, critical political events are underway with the High Level Partnership Forum in Turkey held on Feb 23-24, and review of the Provisional Federal Constitution. The period has witnessed political manoeuvring, international lobbying, boycotts, and heightened risk of conflict amid the prevailing security paradigm; factors that have the potential to influence the prospect of elections in 2016.

Our report looks at the current proposed processes, challenges, the potential for consensus to appease the greater Somali public in the road ahead and likelihood of August elections being inclusive and transparent.

The Special Report can be viewed by clicking the link: SOMALIA ELECTION 2016 - The Road to Villa Somalia - No. 3

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The Vates Corp Election Special report is the second in a series, and covers the 2016 Somalia electoral process, current situation and what may happen next. Following a decision on the 2016 election model, our report explores what this means and possible challenges ahead.

The conclusion of the National Consultative Forum (NCF) in Mogadishu on Jan 27 resulted in the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) presenting a ‘best scenario’ for holding elections slated to take place in Aug 2016. The international community described the NCF outcome as a ‘watershed’ moment, saying an election model had been agreed upon following “six months of intense consultations”. However, the much celebrated NCF communique conceded that negotiations had not reached a consensus rather that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud stepped in and made a decision on the election process. 

Our report looks forward as the decision on the chosen election model transitions to implementation, identifying the potential for progress and likely hurdles ahead. 

The Special Report can be viewed by clicking the link: SOMALIA ELECTION 2016 - The Road to Villa Somalia - No. 2

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This is the first report in a series covering the 2016 Somalia elections. As a special offer we are providing this analysis available complimentary for viewing on our website.

The election of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and a new parliament in Sep 2012 saw the establishment of Somalia’s first permanent government in over 20 years and was celebrated as a major step towards a new political chapter for the country. President Mohamud, who was elected by a parliament selected by clan elders, promised to oversee the transition to democracy by 2016.  Elections are scheduled to take place in Aug 2016. The third National Consultative Forum (NCF) held in Mogadishu that began on Jan 24, sought to finalise the 2016 electoral process, after the two earlier meetings failed to achieve consensus. Following reports that the talks during the latest NCF had broken down, a communique was issued on the 2016 election model late on Jan 27. It is understood that the diplomatic community lobbied stakeholders to come back to the negotiating table.

The Communique conceded that the lengthy negotiations had not produced a consensus, but the Federal Government went on to share what it termed as the ‘best scenario for holding elections in 2016’. A lack of resolved outcome indicates there remain obstacles to the viability of an inclusive election in Aug. With time waning, pressure is on Somali leaders to present an implementation plan and a 2016-2020 political roadmap.

The Special Report can be viewed by clicking the link: SOMALIA ELECTION 2016 – The Road to Villa Somalia.

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Please find attached our latest Special Report The al-Shabaab vs. Islamic State battle for foreign fighters.

The report is based on a Jan 01 video released by al-Shabaab media wing, al-Kataib, “The Path to Paradise: From the Twin Cities to the Land of Two Migrations Episode 2”.

This video captured the attention of international media for featuring Donald Trump's comments on suspending the Muslim immigration to the states. However our assessment examines arguably the more significant message contained in the video, regarding al-Shabaab’s battle for foreign fighters. Our report explores reasons why global jihadist groups are desperately seeking to recruit internationals into their ranks and the ideological conviction of some members of the diaspora.

The Special Report can be viewed by clicking this link.

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Vates Corp is pleased to offer this complimentary edition from our fortnightly Somalia Situational Analysis series.

In addition to our normal report we have included a detailed analysis of the 2015 attacks in and around Mogadishu hotels.

Our Research and Analysis department is currently producing fortnightly reports for the following countries:

• Ethiopia
• Kenya
• Mozambique
• Somalia
• South Sudan
• Tanzania
• Uganda

The COMPLIMENTARY report may be viewed by clicking this link.

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Vates Corp's latest Special Report on the Evolution of al-Shabaab and the potential impact of an Islamic State alliance.

Al-Shabaab has evolved significantly from its origins. The group is currently struggling for survival against a renewed African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) offensive and it has the potential to morph again.

Vates Corp assesses the likelihood of al-Shabaab aligning to Islamic State and the possible impact this could have on the future threat from the group.

The Special Report can be viewed by clicking this link.

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Vates Corp is pleased of provide you with our FREE Special Report on The Future of Somalia Oil & Gas Exploration.

The report identifies our assessment of the prospects and challenges to Somalia achieving its oil and gas potential. The assessment concludes by proposing three recommendations for Somalia to encourage investment and development in its oil and gas sector.

The FREE Special Report can be viewed by clicking this link.

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Vates Corp is pleased of provide you with our FREE Special Report on Why the fall of Barawe may not mean the end of al-Shabaab

This brief provides our assessment of what the fall of Barawe means for al-Shabaab's militant campaign.

While the Somali government, AMISOM and many media outlets have portrayed the fall of Barawe as bringing about the imminent demise of al-Shabaab, Vates analyses why, in the immediate future, this is unlikely to be the case.

The FREE Special Report can be viewed by clicking this link.

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