This fourth election special report for clients receiving our Somalia Situational Analysis reporting, assesses al-Shabaab, current Counterinsurgency (COIN) strategies, and other security factors or threats which may influence the political path towards elections.
With less than six months before scheduled elections, the flurry of high level political events focused on the roadmap for elections in Aug 2016 appears to have eased momentarily, with attention turning towards the security environment required to enable political progress to be made. AMISOM Troop Contributing Countries Summit held Feb 28 exposed tensions between allied forces, international actors and Somali national security organs regarding the way forward. Political events have arguably been eclipsed by a series of high profile security incidents that have heightened a sense of urgency around addressing challenges facing Somalia national forces and AMISOM, and relations between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and regional administrations. The prevailing security paradigm posed by al-Shabaab, political power brokers and clan and regional interest groups each have the potential to fundamentally challenge progress towards elections in Aug 2016.
The Special Report can be viewed by clicking the link: SOMALIA ELECTION 2016 - The Road to Villa Somalia - No. 4