Election Special #5 examines the latest political and security developments and what it means for Somalia’s elections in 2016. Throughout the election series, we have analysed a myriad of political and security challenges that may undermine Somalia’s ability to transition through elections in 2016, with a view that we would be able to point towards steady but substantive progress as the date neared. However, after a series of fast moving political events towards the end of 2015 and at start of this year, the momentum towards Aug elections appears to have slowed to a low ebb. With the election model awaiting approval by parliament in Apr, the political scene has shifted to interim federal administrations. The period has also witnessed an unprecedented pivot by al-Shabaab into Puntland, which has potential ramifications in terms of security for Somalia and politically for the role of AMISOM in the country. With a few months left before constitutional mandates of parliament and the presidency expire, and the holy month of Ramadan expected to begin in the first week of June, the prospect of elections being held on time is looking increasingly precarious.
The Special Report can be viewed by clicking the link: SOMALIA ELECTION 2016 - The Road to Villa Somalia - No. 5