This special report analyses the existential crisis facing the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) following the Apr 22-25 Troop Contributing Countries summit in Kampala.
Key findings include:
- The AU has only U.S.$ 16.7 million against a U.S.$ 190 million annual requirement; TCCs called for 8,000 additional troops beyond UNSC authorisation
- Al-Shabaab has overrun multiple FOBs in Lower and Middle Shabelle, with Uganda reporting eight of eighteen handed-over FOBs have fallen, marking a significant rollback to pre-2019 positions
- The U.S. has indicated it will not support the hybrid funding mechanism under Resolution 2719, raising the possibility of a P5 veto on May 15
- TCC assessments directly contradict FGS claims of SSF readiness, with documented lack of will to fight and poor unit cohesion
- A controversial peer review mechanism has been proposed to hold the FGS accountable, extending oversight to political reconciliation with FMS
- Two FMS (Puntland and Jubaland) plus Somaliland have suspended relations with the FGS, and direct elections are highly unlikely given security conditions
TCCs presented stark options: fund AUSSOM and influence positive change, or face the likelihood of al-Shabaab taking over southern Somalia within 12 months. The consequences of failure extend beyond Somalia to regional security across the Horn of Africa.