Special Reports
Our special reports provide detailed analysis of significant events, emerging threats, and political developments across our areas of focus. Drawing on our primary sources and ground-level networks, these reports offer a complimentary preview of our actionable insights for decision-makers.
Not So AUSSOM – Somalia’s Security Mission in Crisis
Analysis of the existential crisis facing AUSSOM following the Apr 2025 Kampala summit, examining the funding shortfall, al-Shabaab territorial gains, SSF capability concerns, and stark choices facing international partners.
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Juba Clashes and South Sudan Security Sector Crisis
Analysis of the Nov 21 2024 clashes in Juba between Military Intelligence and National Security Services forces, examining the dismantling of South Sudan's four-pillar security architecture and implications for stability.
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SSC-Khatumo Defeat Somaliland Forces in Las Anod
Analysis of SSC-Khatumo's decisive Aug 25 2023 victory over Somaliland forces at Gojacadde, removing Somaliland's military presence from most of Sool region, and assessing implications for regional stability.
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Al-Shabaab Ethiopia Border Incursion
Analysis of al-Shabaab's unprecedented cross-border incursion into Ethiopia following the July 20, 2022 attacks on Yeed and Ato, assessing the extent of militant penetration and implications for regional security.
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PM Abiy Acknowledges Eritrean Forces in Tigray
Analysis of PM Abiy's admission of Eritrean military presence in Tigray and assessment of likely scenarios following announced withdrawal.
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Al-Shabaab Attack on Manda Bay, Camp Simba Base Camp, Kenya
Analysis of the January 2020 al-Shabaab attack on Manda Bay base that killed three Americans
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Analysis of Mogadishu VBIED Attacks (Jan 2017 - Apr 2019)
Comprehensive analysis of Vehicle Borne IED incidents in Mogadishu examining al-Shabaab tactics, techniques and procedures with attack timing over a 27-month period.
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AMISOM Draw Down: Analysis and Implications
Assessment of AMISOM's phased troop reduction, transition challenges, and implications for Somalia's security sector reform.
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Al-Shabaab Statement on Jerusalem: Threat Assessment
Analysis of al-Shabaab's response to U.S. recognition of Jerusalem, including threat implications for Western interests in East Africa.
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Puntland Pro-ISIL Group Occupies Qandala Town
Detailed analysis of the ISIL-aligned group's occupation of Qandala, clan dynamics, and evolving threat landscape in Bari region.
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The Road to Villa Somalia - No. 9
Final report in the series tracking Somalia's 2016 election process, federal state dynamics, and political developments.
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The Islamic State Threat to Somalia
Assessment of ISIL presence in Somalia, competition with al-Shabaab, and analysis of pro-ISIL factions.
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The Road to Villa Somalia - No. 6
Sixth report in the series tracking Somalia's 2016 election process, federal state dynamics, and political developments.
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The Road to Villa Somalia - No. 5
Fifth report in the series tracking Somalia's 2016 election process, federal state dynamics, and political developments.
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The Road to Villa Somalia - No. 4
Fourth report in the series tracking Somalia's 2016 election process, federal state dynamics, and political developments.
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The Road to Villa Somalia - No. 3
Third report in the series tracking Somalia's 2016 election process, federal state dynamics, and political developments.
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The Road to Villa Somalia - No. 2
Second report in the series tracking Somalia's 2016 election process, federal state dynamics, and political developments.
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The Road to Villa Somalia - No. 1
First report in the series analysing Somalia's 2016 election process, federal state dynamics, and political developments.
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Al-Shabaab vs. Islamic State: Battle for Foreign Fighters
Analysis of competition between al-Shabaab and Islamic State for foreign fighter recruitment and regional implications.
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The Future of Somalia Oil & Gas Exploration
Analysis of oil and gas exploration prospects in Somalia, examining investment risks, political challenges, and the regulatory environment.
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Emir Abu Ubaidah and the Future Threat of Al-Shabaab
Analysis of al-Shabaab's new leadership following the death of Emir Godane, examining the group's residual threat capacity and regional implications.
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Why the Fall of Barawe May Not Mean the End of Al-Shabaab
Analysis of the strategic implications of al-Shabaab's loss of Barawe, examining the group's command structure, revenue streams, and asymmetric warfare capabilities.
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