This special report analyses the Nov 21 2024 clashes in Juba between Military Intelligence forces and National Security Services loyalists, and assesses the implications of South Sudan's rapidly transforming security sector.
Key findings include:
- On Nov 21, MI units under Lt. Gen. Stephen Babanen clashed with security guards of dismissed NSS Director Akol Koor Kuc in Tongping, Juba, resulting in four civilian deaths and use of artillery
- Akol Koor has been placed under house arrest in Juba's Jebel area and kept incommunicado
- This represents the most significant transformation of South Sudan's security apparatus since Paul Malong's ousting in 2017
- Kiir's simultaneous dismissal of Akol Koor and Tiger Division commander Lual Maroldit has dismantled the four-pillar security architecture that maintained fragile stability
- The oil pipeline rupture in Feb 2024 triggered the crisis by cutting revenue needed to pay security forces
- Rather than allow an unstable single-pillar system to emerge, Kiir moved to neutralise all potential rivals simultaneously – a gamble that has left the security architecture without its traditional foundations
The situation remains extremely fragile with the potential for renewed conflict. While confident predictions are difficult, there is growing discontent and historically coups have come from middle-ranking officers rather than high-ranking figures with much to lose. The coming months will prove critical in determining whether South Sudan descends into renewed civil conflict or navigates this transition without large-scale violence.