This special report analyses the Las Anod conflict culminating in SSC-Khatumo's decisive Aug 25 2023 victory over Somaliland forces and assesses implications for regional stability.
Key findings include:
- On Aug 25, SSC-Khatumo/Harti militias overran Somaliland's Gojacadde garrison, pushing forces back 96km to Oog and effectively removing Somaliland's military presence from most of Sool region
- The conflict originated in late Dec 2022 following the assassination of opposition politician Hadrawi Sangub and violent suppression of subsequent protests by Somaliland security forces
- The Feb 06 2023 meeting of Dhulbahante clan elders marked a rare show of unity, becoming a turning point that initiated Dhulbahante resistance against Somaliland
- SSC-Khatumo victory was enabled by improved command cohesion under President Abdiqadir Ahmed aw-Ali 'Firdhiye', Garxajis defections providing intelligence on Somaliland weaknesses, and a surge in Harti militia manpower
- Somaliland's claims of al-Shabaab involvement are almost certainly false and represent attempts to deflect from actions assessed by many as human rights abuses
- Somaliland experienced a major defeat losing tens of fighters, 374 POWs, tanks, technicals, and military materiel
The report assesses a protracted intercommunal conflict is highly likely, with near-term potential for resumed fighting but very unlikely prospects for Somaliland to regain lost positions. Questions remain regarding SSC-Khatumo's path forward given constitutional requirements for federal member state formation requiring agreement with neighbouring regions.