This special report analyses Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's acknowledgement of Eritrean military forces operating in Ethiopia's Tigray region and assesses the implications of the announced withdrawal.
Key findings include:
- On March 23, 2021, PM Abiy admitted Eritrean forces had crossed into Tigray, reversing months of official denials despite overwhelming evidence
- Fighting erupted in November 2020 following disputed events at ENDF Northern Command bases, with both sides accusing the other of initiating hostilities
- The conflict has drawn in multiple actors including ENDF, Tigray Defence Force, Eritrean Defence Force, and Amhara regional forces and Fano militia
- PM Abiy's announcement of Eritrean withdrawal came after intense international pressure, particularly from the United States and European Union
- Assessment indicates Eritrean forces are unlikely to fully withdraw, with possible re-badging of troops as ENDF to maintain combat power
The report examines two potential theories regarding PM Abiy's strategy: shifting blame for humanitarian violations to Eritrea ahead of international investigations, or prolonging the military stalemate until after elections to avoid negotiations with TPLF leadership over annexed territories.