Vates - KM4 junction, Mogadishu
January 2026

The Road to Villa Somalia – No. 4

Fourth report in the series tracking Somalia's 2016 election process, federal state dynamics, and political developments.

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Vates - KM4 junction, Mogadishu
January 2026

The Road to Villa Somalia – No. 5

Fifth report in the series tracking Somalia's 2016 election process, federal state dynamics, and political developments.

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Vates - KM4 junction, Mogadishu
January 2026

The Road to Villa Somalia – No. 6

Sixth report in the series tracking Somalia's 2016 election process, federal state dynamics, and political developments.

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Vates - Al-Shabaab foreign fighter recruitment
January 2026

Al-Shabaab vs. Islamic State: Battle for Foreign Fighters

Analysis of competition between al-Shabaab and Islamic State for foreign fighter recruitment and regional implications.

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Vates - KM4 junction, Mogadishu
January 2026

The Road to Villa Somalia – No. 9

Final report in the series tracking Somalia's 2016 election process, federal state dynamics, and political developments.

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Vates - Abdulkadir Mumin Islamic State Somalia
January 2026

The Islamic State Threat to Somalia

Assessment of ISIL presence in Somalia, competition with al-Shabaab, and analysis of pro-ISIL factions.

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Vates - Puntland - Northern Somalia al-Shabaab - Islamic State VEO map
January 2026

Puntland Pro-ISIL Group Occupies Qandala Town

Detailed analysis of the ISIL-aligned group's occupation of Qandala, clan dynamics, and evolving threat landscape in Bari region.

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Vates - Somalia national flag
January 2026

AMISOM Draw Down: Analysis and Implications

Assessment of AMISOM's phased troop reduction, transition challenges, and implications for Somalia's security sector reform.

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