Vates - May 01 2025 Lower Shabelle and Hirshabelle access map
January 2026

Not So AUSSOM – Somalia’s Security Mission in Crisis

Analysis of the existential crisis facing AUSSOM following the Apr 2025 Kampala summit, examining the funding shortfall, al-Shabaab territorial gains, SSF capability concerns, and stark…

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Vates - Al-Shabaab Ethiopia border incursion map
January 2026

Al-Shabaab Ethiopia Border Incursion

Analysis of al-Shabaab's unprecedented cross-border incursion into Ethiopia following the July 20, 2022 attacks on Yeed and Ato, assessing the extent of militant penetration and…

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Vates - Barawe, Somalia
January 2026

Why the Fall of Barawe May Not Mean the End of Al-Shabaab

Analysis of the strategic implications of al-Shabaab's loss of Barawe, examining the group's command structure, revenue streams, and asymmetric warfare capabilities.

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