Vates - May 01 2025 Lower Shabelle and Hirshabelle access map
January 2026

Not So AUSSOM – Somalia’s Security Mission in Crisis

Analysis of the existential crisis facing AUSSOM following the Apr 2025 Kampala summit, examining the funding shortfall, al-Shabaab territorial gains, SSF capability concerns, and stark…

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Vates - SSC-Khatumo Las Anod map
January 2026

SSC-Khatumo Defeat Somaliland Forces in Las Anod

Analysis of SSC-Khatumo's decisive Aug 25 2023 victory over Somaliland forces at Gojacadde, removing Somaliland's military presence from most of Sool region, and assessing implications…

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Vates - Abdulkadir Mumin Islamic State Somalia
January 2026

The Islamic State Threat to Somalia

Assessment of ISIL presence in Somalia, competition with al-Shabaab, and analysis of pro-ISIL factions.

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Vates - Puntland - Northern Somalia al-Shabaab - Islamic State VEO map
January 2026

Puntland Pro-ISIL Group Occupies Qandala Town

Detailed analysis of the ISIL-aligned group's occupation of Qandala, clan dynamics, and evolving threat landscape in Bari region.

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