January 2026

Al-Shabaab Attack on Manda Bay, Camp Simba Base Camp, Kenya

Analysis of the January 2020 al-Shabaab attack on Manda Bay base that killed three Americans

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January 2026

Why the Fall of Barawe May Not Mean the End of Al-Shabaab

Analysis of the strategic implications of al-Shabaab's loss of Barawe, examining the group's command structure, revenue streams, and asymmetric warfare capabilities.

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January 2026

Emir Abu Ubaidah and the Future Threat of Al-Shabaab

Analysis of al-Shabaab's new leadership following the death of Emir Godane, examining the group's residual threat capacity and regional implications.

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January 2026

Al-Shabaab vs. Islamic State: Battle for Foreign Fighters

Analysis of competition between al-Shabaab and Islamic State for foreign fighter recruitment and regional implications.

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January 2026

Al-Shabaab Statement on Jerusalem: Threat Assessment

Analysis of al-Shabaab's response to U.S. recognition of Jerusalem, including threat implications for Western interests in East Africa.

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