Not So AUSSOM – Somalia’s Security Mission in Crisis
Analysis of the existential crisis facing AUSSOM following the Apr 2025 Kampala summit, examining the funding shortfall, al-Shabaab territorial gains, SSF capability concerns, and stark…
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SSC-Khatumo Defeat Somaliland Forces in Las Anod
Analysis of SSC-Khatumo's decisive Aug 25 2023 victory over Somaliland forces at Gojacadde, removing Somaliland's military presence from most of Sool region, and assessing implications…
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Al-Shabaab Ethiopia Border Incursion
Analysis of al-Shabaab's unprecedented cross-border incursion into Ethiopia following the July 20, 2022 attacks on Yeed and Ato, assessing the extent of militant penetration and…
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Al-Shabaab Attack on Manda Bay, Camp Simba Base Camp, Kenya
Analysis of the January 2020 al-Shabaab attack on Manda Bay base that killed three Americans
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Why the Fall of Barawe May Not Mean the End of Al-Shabaab
Analysis of the strategic implications of al-Shabaab's loss of Barawe, examining the group's command structure, revenue streams, and asymmetric warfare capabilities.
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Emir Abu Ubaidah and the Future Threat of Al-Shabaab
Analysis of al-Shabaab's new leadership following the death of Emir Godane, examining the group's residual threat capacity and regional implications.
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Al-Shabaab vs. Islamic State: Battle for Foreign Fighters
Analysis of competition between al-Shabaab and Islamic State for foreign fighter recruitment and regional implications.
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Al-Shabaab Statement on Jerusalem: Threat Assessment
Analysis of al-Shabaab's response to U.S. recognition of Jerusalem, including threat implications for Western interests in East Africa.
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