Analysis of Mogadishu VBIED Attacks (Jan 2017 - Apr 2019)

Executive Summary

This special report provides a comprehensive analysis of Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) incidents in Mogadishu over a 27-month period from January 2017 to April 2019. The analysis examines al-Shabaab's evolving tactics, targeting patterns, and attack timing to provide actionable intelligence for organisations operating in the Somali capital.

Key findings from the analysis include:

• Detailed mapping of VBIED attack locations and frequency across Mogadishu's districts
• Analysis of al-Shabaab's target selection patterns, including government installations, hotels, and checkpoints
• Examination of attack timing and correlation with political events
• Assessment of the group's capability evolution and bomb-making sophistication
• Implications for security planning and risk mitigation strategies

The report offers critical insights for security professionals, government agencies, and international organisations seeking to understand and mitigate the VBIED threat in Mogadishu.