The Islamic State Threat to Somalia

Executive Summary

As Islamic State (ISIL) sought to expand its global footprint beyond Syria and Iraq, Somalia emerged as a potential theatre for the group's expansion in East Africa. This report examines the emergence of pro-ISIL factions in Somalia and the complex dynamics between Islamic State supporters and the dominant al-Shabaab militant group.

The analysis covers:

• Origins of pro-ISIL sentiment within Somalia's militant landscape
• Profile of key figures including Sheikh Abdulkadir Mumin's defection from al-Shabaab
• ISIL's recruitment strategies and appeal to disaffected al-Shabaab members
• Al-Shabaab's response to the ISIL challenge and internal tensions
• Geographic areas of ISIL influence and operational capabilities
• Assessment of ISIL's growth potential versus al-Shabaab's dominance

The report concludes with an assessment of the likely trajectory of ISIL in Somalia and implications for the broader counterterrorism effort in the region.