Why the Fall of Barawe May Not Mean the End of Al-Shabaab

Executive Summary

On October 5, 2014, Somali National Army forces supported by AMISOM entered al-Shabaab's key stronghold of Barawe in Lower Shabelle. While the loss of Barawe represents a significant setback for the militant group, this report analyses why the capture of the town is unlikely to spell the end of al-Shabaab.

Key areas of analysis include:

• Impact on al-Shabaab's command and control capabilities
• Assessment of the group's ability to survive loss of revenue and resupply hub
• Analysis of whether AMISOM and SNA can sustain territorial gains
• Evaluation of al-Shabaab's transition to asymmetric guerrilla warfare
• Prospects for fighter defections and government amnesty programmes
• Al-Shabaab's continued capability to conduct complex attacks
• Requirements for diminishing the al-Shabaab threat long-term

The report draws on classical guerrilla warfare doctrine to explain al-Shabaab's tactical withdrawals and continued threat capacity despite territorial losses.