AMISOM Draw Down: Analysis and Implications

Executive Summary

This report analyses the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) phased troop reduction and its implications for Somalia's security landscape. As AMISOM prepares to transition security responsibilities to Somali National Security Forces, critical questions emerge about the country's readiness to assume this burden.

The analysis examines:

• AMISOM's planned withdrawal timeline and troop reduction phases
• Current capabilities and readiness of Somali National Army (SNA) and police forces
• Security sector reform progress and remaining challenges
• Al-Shabaab's likely response to reduced AMISOM presence
• Risks to stability in newly liberated areas
• Implications for international partners and humanitarian operations

The report provides recommendations for managing the transition period and mitigating security risks associated with the drawdown of peacekeeping forces.