This special report analyses al-Shabaab's unprecedented cross-border incursion into Ethiopia following the Jul 20 2022 coordinated attacks on Ethiopian Liyuu paramilitary forces stationed in Yeed and Ato towns, Bakool region, Somalia.
Key findings include:
- Following the Jul 20 attacks, approx. 250 militants with 17 vehicles crossed into Ethiopia's Somali Regional State (SRS), marking the most significant al-Shabaab incursion into Ethiopian territory to date
- On Jul 28, U.S. AFRICOM commander Gen Stephen Townsend described the incursion as "largely contained" - however, Vates assesses that hundreds of militants have penetrated deep into Ethiopian territory, with a large contingent reaching the Bale Mountains in Oromia region
- Al-Shabaab pre-planned the incursion over several months, infiltrating clan networks, smuggling weapons, and establishing support infrastructure inside Ethiopia
- The incursion was almost certainly enabled by the weakening of Ethiopia's security apparatus during the Tigray civil war, with ENDF forces drawn down from the SRS border
- Sources indicate militants may intend to link up with Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) rebels and expand operations into Somaliland and potentially Djibouti
We assess an increased likelihood that al-Shabaab will seek to plan and potentially undertake further terrorist attacks in Ethiopia in the medium term.